An emerging trade war between the United States and China could drive U.S. crude exports lower in 2025 for the first time since the pandemic by reducing access to the Chinese market, according to analysts.

After a 10 percent tariff on Chinese products took effect on Tuesday, China announced retaliatory measures, including tariffs and an investigation of Google.

The world’s two largest economies did not cut a deal to avert sweeping U.S. tariffs, which came into effect after midnight. Beijing immediately retaliated.