The financial markets in Israel have in recent days been behaving as if they know something we don’t. With the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas set to begin on Sunday, the shekel is strengthening, and the stock market gains suggest hopes that go far beyond an end to the fighting in Gaza.

The ceasefire agreement, reached with Hamas, provides for the swap of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners and a surge of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

Under the deal, bitterly opposed by some cabinet hardliners, a six-week ceasefire is due to take effect on Sunday, with the first of a series of hostage-for-prisoner exchanges that could open the way to ending the 15-month war in Gaza.